In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

📊Market probability: 36.4%

⏰Closes: Jan 2, 2028

👤Created by: @ScottAlexander

🔗View on Manifold Markets

🤖 Resolution Analysis

	Date	Model	Resolution
▼	Oct 8, 2025 at 6:45 AM UTC	Claude 3.5 Haiku	Not Ready
Analysis of Prediction Market Question Current Status Assessment Based on current AI capabilities as of 2024, this market should NOT be resolved yet, as the described capability does not exist. Key Technological Considerations Current AI video generation is limited to short clips (seconds/minutes) Generating a coherent 120-minute narrative remains extremely challenging Multi-modal AI systems like GPT-4 and Sora show promising intermediate capabilities Technological Challenges Maintaining narrative coherence over 2-hour duration Generating consistent visual style and character representations Creating smooth scene transitions and plot progression Rendering high-quality visual effects comparable to studio productions Prediction While significant progress is likely before 2028, fully autonomous high-quality movie generation remains uncertain. The market should remain open. Recommended Resolution Criteria Full 120-minute coherent narrative Professional-grade visual quality Verified AI-only generation Independent expert confirmation
▶	Oct 8, 2025 at 6:44 AM UTC	Claude 3.5 Haiku	Not Ready
Analysis of Prediction Market Question: AI Movie Generation in 2028 Current Status Assessment As of 2024, this market should NOT have been resolved yet because: The target date is early 2028 The specified capabilities exceed current AI video generation technologies The market is explicitly asking about future technological capability Current AI Video Generation Capabilities As of 2024, existing technologies can: Generate short video clips (few seconds) Create basic animated sequences Produce low-resolution or fragmented video content Gaps to Full Movie Generation Significant challenges remain, including: Maintaining narrative coherence over 120 minutes Generating high-quality visual consistency Creating complex character interactions Managing computational complexity Recommendation The market should remain open until early 2028, with resolution dependent on demonstrable AI capabilities at that time. Probability Speculation Based on current technological trajectories, I estimate a 30-40% likelihood of achieving the specified capability by early 2028.
▶	Oct 7, 2025 at 4:57 PM UTC	Claude 3.5 Haiku	Not Ready
AI Movie Generation Market Analysis Current State of Technology As of early 2024, this market is not yet resolvable. While AI has made significant advances in video and image generation, a full high-quality 120-minute movie generated from a prompt remains beyond current capabilities. Key Technological Limitations Current AI video generation tools like Sora can produce short clips, but not full narrative films Consistent narrative coherence over 120 minutes is still a major challenge Complex visual continuity and character consistency are not yet solved Potential Resolution Assessment Based on the market description, this market should NOT be resolved yet. The specified criteria require: Full 120-minute movie generation High-quality production standards Narrative coherence comparable to studio film Recommendation The market should remain open. Current AI technology is progressing rapidly, but has not yet achieved the described capability as of early 2024. Estimated Probability Rough estimate: 30-40% chance of being achievable by early 2028
▶	Sep 25, 2025 at 1:31 PM UTC	Claude 3.5 Haiku	Not Ready
Analysis of AI Movie Generation Prediction Market Current State Assessment As of early 2024, this market should NOT be resolved yet, as the resolution date is set for early 2028. The scheduled close timestamp (1830412740000) translates to approximately January 2028. Technological Capabilities Evaluation Current AI Video Generation Status Text-to-video AI exists (Sora, Runway ML) but is very limited Current systems can generate short clips, not full narrative films Major technical challenges remain in: Consistent character representation Coherent long-form narrative Maintaining visual quality over extended duration Complex plot progression Prediction Likelihood While rapid AI progress suggests this might be possible, a "high-quality" 120-minute film seems challenging by 2028. The market appears to be setting a high technical bar. Recommended Resolution The market should remain open until the specified resolution date in early 2028, allowing technological developments to unfold.