In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

📊Market probability: 70.5%
Closes: Jan 2, 2028
👤Created by: @ScottAlexander

🤖 Resolution Analysis

DateModelResolution
Sep 25, 2025 at 2:24 PM UTCClaude 3.5 HaikuNot Ready

Analysis of Prediction Market Question: AI as a Political Issue in 2028

Market Status Assessment

Based on the available information, this market should NOT have been resolved yet. The scheduled close timestamp (1830412740000) translates to approximately May 31, 2028, which is still in the future.

Current Political Landscape

  • AI is rapidly becoming a significant political and policy issue
  • Debates around AI regulation, ethics, and societal impact are intensifying
  • Major governments and international bodies are starting to create AI policy frameworks

Comparative Analysis: AI vs. Abortion as Political Issues

As of 2024, this is still an open question with several nuanced considerations:

  1. AI's political prominence is growing exponentially
  2. Potential economic and social disruption from AI might elevate its political significance
  3. Abortion remains a deeply polarizing issue in many jurisdictions

Preliminary Prediction

While it's too early to definitively resolve the market, current trends suggest AI could potentially match or exceed abortion's political salience by 2028.

Recommendation

The market should remain open until the specified close date for proper resolution based on the creator's specified criteria.